THE upcoming Venezuelan presidential election could lead to refugees who fled to Trinidad and Tobago and other countries returning to their homeland.
That is the view of international experts, who hinge their speculation on one factor – that Opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez beats authoritarian President Nicolas Maduro.
But they are not betting on it, since they expect Maduro to rig the July 28 polls.
There are tens of thousands of illegal Venezuelan refugees in Trinidad and Tobago, with a smaller number of registered migrants.
The officially recognised migrants can access healthcare and other facilities and enroll their children in public schools.
Several refugees beg for alms in public places.
Boat traders reportedly continue to bring in refugees through wide-open southern borders.
There is also said to be a lucrative contraband trade between both countries.
It is estimated that several hundred thousand illegal migrants are in other Caribbean countries.
Altogether, more than seven million Venezuelans – about a quarter of the country’s population – have fled over the past decade as a result of social and economic crises and political repression.
Many settled in neighbouring South American countries, particularly Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru.
International media have quoted a sample of migrants as saying they would like to return to their home country and resume their lives with their loved ones.
They are hopeful that Gonzalez will win the election and return the country to a path of democracy and economic prosperity.
But many migrants are fearful of electoral fraud.
They recall Maduro retreating from his assurance at a meeting in Barbados last October of free and fair elections.
The Maduro administration later trumped up reasons to debar popular politician Maria Corina Machado from contesting the polls.
The United States has since re-imposed stiff economic sanctions on Venezuela, which, among other things, prompt queries about the future of the lucrative Dragon Gas natural gas project with T&T.
The Rowley administration is placing a high premium on that cross-border venture.
Opinion polls have placed Gonzalez ahead of Maduro.
One Washington expert said that Maduro “can only win the election if he steals it.”
The United Nations, the Carter Centre and other international agencies are expected to monitor the polls.
There is great international interest in the election’s outcome.
