NEW REPORT WARNS: MORE HARD TIMES AHEAD!

THE elderly, low-income families, disabled, sick, unemployed, and university students should brace for more hard times.

That is because, with declining revenues from the energy sector, the Government will be unable to fund the social welfare system.

Social welfare spending takes 41 per cent of earnings from oil and gas, a new report noted.

And with a 20 per cent decline in production, vulnerable citizens are likely to suffer, the Trinidad and Tobago Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (TTEITI) said in a sober analysis.

The Government spends up to $7 billion each year on various support benefits, such as old age pension, and make-work schemes, like CEPEP.

Spending on senior citizens’ pensions alone costs about $3.5 billion a year, according to the report.

Public assistance grants and funding of Government Assistance for Tertiary Education (GATE) each amount to just under $400 million annually.

Around $600 million is spent each year on disability assistance grants.

A further complication is that with people living longer, additional funding is required.

With falling energy output, the Government faces “complex challenges” in balancing spending with revenues, the TTEITI study said.

A “comprehensive strategy is essential,” the report added.

There should be “policy dialogue on rationalisation of spending.”

TTEITI urged that there be discussions on industries of the future and spending “to equip today’s students with skills to work on these industries.” 

The statement raised “concerns about the country’s capacity to allocate funds to vital social programmes.”

A greater reduction in revenues will force the Government to slash more spending on social welfare, it was noted.

TTEITI advised: “As the nation grapples with questions surrounding an aging population, how to boost energy sector revenue and overall economic resilience, proactive measures are imperative to ensure a sustainable future…”

The crucial analysis comes as Finance Minister Colm Imbert prepares the 2024-25 national budget, the final before the all-important general election.

Imbert is expected to maintain social spending in order to win the electorate’s favour.

That is likely to require further international borrowings, adding to the debt burden.

Prime Minister Dr. Keith Rowley recently commented on the hefty costs of social welfare programmes relative to earnings from the energy sector.

Rowley has also complained about having to spend “a lot of money” on national security.

The Prime Minister fended off claims of planned reductions in allocations for social aid, including the Chronic Disease Assistance Programme (CDAP).

But the Government has been cutting back support for some support programmes, and subventions to such agencies at The University of the West Indies and the Water and Sewerage Authority (WASA).

As a result, UWI has increased the cost of tuition.

Higher rates and tariffs by WASA and Trinidad and Tobago Electricity Commission are expected after the election.

With the climbing cost of living, there will be further hardship for the poor if the Government freezes or reduces allocations to social welfare schemes.

TTEITI counselled the Government to “address the evolving needs of the population, secure sustainable revenue streams, and navigate the intricate interplay between economic variables.”