FOR the first time in three general elections, the UNC is presenting a candidate for the swing San Fernando West constituency who has some viability.
But the stars will have to align for educator Dr. Michael Dowlath to win the prized seat from two-term incumbent Member of Parliament Faris Al Rawi.
Dowlath’s leaders would have to negotiate a pact with Gary Griffith, whose National Transformation Alliance has announced a candidate, Dr. Kevin Sarran.
A split opposition vote would almost surely hand victory to Al Rawi, despite his under-performance and limited presence among constituents.
In 2020, Al Rawi pulled in 8,457 votes, to the UNC Sean Sobers’ 6,651.
Five years earlier, Al Rawi secured 10,112 votes, while the UNC’s Raziah Ahmed received 6,802 ballots.
The PNM candidate’s appeal may have been further diluted over the most recent five years because of neglect of constituents’ needs and Al Rawi’s lower ministerial profile.
But short-term daily-paid work on the San Fernando waterfront and other projects could possibly sway grassroots voters of the Marabella trainline, who voted in a UNC candidate in last year’s local government polls.
In a stunning political development, entertainer Michael “Makamillion” Alibocas won the Marabella West seat for the UNC.
The UNC’s victory was, at least in part, the result of protest votes from traditional PNM supporters.
In 2020, the PNM Government provided or offered jobs to several people at State institutions, including San Fernando General Hospital.
Dowlath, former principal of the prestigious Naparima College, is much more qualified for the electoral fight than Sobers and Ahmed, both political neophytes with little emotional connection.
The candidate will impact middle-class voters in a seat with a significant number of business people and professionals.
But while he would have outreach with the Presbyterian community because of his ties with Naparima College, the religious demographics have changed radically in recent years.
Dowlath would have to attract the full-gospel faithful, who comprise a major and growing number of constituents.
In recent years, Presbyterian, Catholic and Anglican worshippers have dwindled in number.
Apart from influencing the diverse religious community, the candidate would also have to make inroads among struggling working-class voters.
An effective broad-ranged campaign would be required to lift his voting bloc above 7,000.
He would have to create a mass movement, similar to that of 2010 which permitted Carolyn Seepersad-Bachan, contesting on behalf of Congress of the People, to capture the seat.
Ms. Seepersad-Bachan garnered 9,111 votes, to 7,860 by the PNM’s Junia Regrello.
A UNC win in the country’s second city would likely seal national victory for the party.
But success for Dowlath would result only from exciting and imaginative canvassing with a cross-section of the community.
He would have to outshine Al Rawi with brand appeal and a vision for the development of a district that has been described by Government Minister Allyson West as “a shanty town.”
If Dowlath could put together an ingenious and effective campaign, there is a great likelihood that he could speak after the election on how the West was won.
