DIVERSIFICATION – WHAT ROWLEY HAS NOT LEARNED FROM MANNING

ON Tuesday July 22, 2008, then-Prime Minister Patrick Manning stood before an audience of financial leaders and outlined industries into which the Trinidad and Tobago economy would be diversified. 

Manning detailed some as printing and packaging, food and beverage, yachting, and merchant marine. 

That was in addition to financial services through the International Financial Centre. 

He acknowledged then – as he had done previously and would do subsequently – that oil and natural gas were wasting assets, and “there is a limit we ought to place” on those resources. 

Manning said it is “incumbent on us to find alternative sources of revenues against the possibility that sometime … oil and gas resources will run out.” 

The next year he advocated ship-building, saying it is labour intensive and had the potential of creating a new industry “that can make a significant contribution to economic activity in our country.”  

In 2006, he had told Caricom leaders that “the process of industrialisation and economic diversification has not been moving at a satisfactory level…” 

Even earlier than that, in 2002, he spoke of expanding light manufacturing and developing service industries and other sectors. 

Manning, like other national leaders, conceded that the energy sector was finite, and so he proposed other industries to sustain and boost the economy and to provide jobs. 

Basdeo Panday, who led the country for six years, did not move the diversification needle appreciably, but saw some advances in manufacturing, financial services and tourism. 

Kamla Persad-Bissessar’s tenure was indicated by a friendlier investment climate (and US $1.5 billion a year from 2012 to 2014), focus on ICT, expanded manufacturing and food production. 

There were announced plans for medical tourism, heritage culture and arts, the marine sector and food processing. 

They were all envisioned through the lens of a more learned and skilled society to effectively compete in a fast-evolving global community. 

But all the platitudes have not yielded much: The T&T economy remains overwhelmingly dependent on a sagging energy sector and one whose products are in reduced international demand and attract lower prices. 

The Gross Domestic Product has dipped in recent years, the public debt has soared, and unemployment is at its worst state since the late 1980s. 

Recent economic circumstances have, of course, been worsened by the ravages of the Covid-19 pandemic. 

The food import bill is at a stunning US $6 billion a year, while agriculture remains stillborn and fertile former sugar cane lands are parcelled off into housing and shopping malls. 

Trinidad and Tobago is still to unlock its much-mooted economic potential, even though international agencies say the country is generally in a better state that most regional neighbours. 

But recent economic growths in Jamaica, Guyana and Barbados have revealed what could be achieved by enlightened leadership, a motivated private sector and an attractive investment climate. 

In the third quarter of 2020, Jamaica’s economy climbed by 8.5 per cent, and its Stock Exchange remains buoyant. 

Barbados’ economy has been rocked by the pandemic, but is remerging with tourism arrivals and investment restarts. 

On the backs of mineral discoveries, Guyana’s economy expanded by 43.5 per cent in 2020 and is set to grow by 20.9 per cent in 2021. 

T&T professionals and investors are rushing to Georgetown. 

Guyana was one of only a handful of countries that managed to escape economic contraction in 2020. 

An average growth of 3.8 per cent is projected for Caricom countries in 2021. 

But T&T, whose economy contracted by almost 12 per cent in 2020, would see nominal growth, according to the experts. 

And still, there is talk and finger-pointing about diversification. 

None of the industries promoted almost two decades ago by Manning has launched. 

Rowley has blamed “foolish people” for the absence of economic diversification, pointing to resistance against a resort and energy project. 

Details of the touted Sandals Resort in Tobago were shrouded in much secrecy, in addition to speculation about lavish long-term tax holidays and minimal benefits to locals. 

The planned aluminium smelter at La Brea – which was scrapped by the Persad-Bissessar Government – was seen by critics as a continuation of the flagging Point Lisas model. 

For that project to be successful in creating a downstream sector there was need to make products based on indigenous knowledge and intellectual property, the experts stressed. 

To be effective in economic development, improved productivity of human, capital and physical resources are considered to be essential cornerstones. 

Criticisms of the smelter project also pertained to claims of toxic exposure. 

As for Rowley and diversification, he has called on the country to stop talking and to start acting. 

That seems to be a bold suggestion that long-overdue economic change is a job for others.