BAD MATHS, KAMLA

KAMLA Persad-Bissessar should not take basket that she is sailing to general election victory on the basis of last year’s local polls result.

That is fool’s gold.

It is comparing oranges with zaboca.

Political whisperers are reportedly telling the political leader of United National Congress that overlapping the 2023 local government statistics on general election seats means she is home and dry.

They suggest the UNC would canter home to election victory.

As a seasoned politico, Ms. Persad-Bissessar must know this is a heady brew of naiveté and negligence, idiocy and impulsiveness.

To be sure, there is no evidence that she has fallen for such tomfoolery.

But just in case the flawed reasoning is gaining credence at UNC headquarters, there are a few pertinent facts to consider.

The 67 seats and 48 per cent of the votes secured in the August 14, 2023 LG polls were the fruits of an amalgamation with Gary Griffith’s National Transformation Alliance (NTA).

The NTA may be a political newbie but it enjoys cross-ethnic and class support largely on the strength of Griffith’s vigour as police chief in a land of rampant crime.

Griffith is considered by a large swath of citizens as our most potent anti-crime force.

It is impossible to tell what NTA brought to the table, but a handful of votes tilted the results in a few key seats.

More than that, disenchanted voters often send tough messages to incumbent regimes at mid-term.

It is a longstanding Trinidad and Tobago manner of declaring: “Fix we or we will withhold our votes or support the opposition.”

Remember the July 29, 2013 Chaguanas West by-election, in which Jack Warner swept all polling divisions and 69 per cent of the votes cast?

The UNC recaptured the constituency in the 2015 general election.

As comforting as last year’s LG results may be to some UNC operatives, they were less impressive than the 2010 and 2013 outcomes.

In partnership with Congress of the People, UNC enjoyed a larger geographic spread of success and greater dominance in its treasured backyards.

The ruling People’s National Movement (PNM) has not yet unleashed its campaign firehouse for next year’s poll, which, my sources tell me, has an underground theme of Lie, Buy and Pacify.

The party which rose from a $4 million debt in 2015 to erect the five-storey Balisier House edifice is spilling over with campaign funds to the point where election merchandise has already been ordered.

The party is also using incumbency to sweeten the pot for electors, especially in marginal constituencies.

Downtrodden voters of the Train Line in Marabella – who gave UNC a historic Marabella West LG victory last year – are employed on the $12 million San Fernando General Hospital upgrade, the foreshore project, and other ventures.

Others are being interviewed and assured of jobs in the public sector, in a repeat of a 2020 ruse.

San Fernando West MP Faris Al Rawi is on overtime duty after placing his constituency office for years in the hands of his mother, Diane Seukeran, a predecessor representative.

Housing grants, social assistance and various other forms of support are being dished out at Moruga-Tableland, with promises of more from where that came.

Senate President Dr. Muhammed Yunus Ibrahim and Junior Works and Transport Minister Richi Sookhai have the tangible benefits of public office in campaigning for Barataria-San Juan and Chaguanas East respectively.

Foster Cummings, Minister of Youth Development and National Service, has a bagful of goodies from several agencies, which are being dished out in toss-up constituencies.

CEPEP and URP got increased funding in the soon-to-expire fiscal year and are expected to receive larger war chests for the crucial year ahead.

Short-term infrastructure jobs and social welfare aid are still in the PNM’s electoral pot, which would complement Prime Minister Dr. Keith Rowley’s high-voltage canvassing.

Rowley will also field a revised slate – at least three candidates of marginal seats are Indo-Trinis – and boast of remodelling and energising the PNM.

The upcoming general election is a different kettle of tilapia from last year’s local government election, and Ms. Persad-Bissessar should silence those peddling political hogwash.

It is just bad maths!